• Magnolia Real Estate Market Update 2015 To 2016

    Seattle’s Magnolia Real Estate Market In 2015


     

    A Magnolia homeowner and client of ours asked for an update on the Magnolia real estate market for 2015 so far, so here we go… Magnolia homes for sale, sold, and pending are on the chart below – these come from Trendgraphix which pulls data from all sources – not just the NWMLS Magnolia listings.  In order to look at Magnolia in general, we really need to go outside the Magnolia “bubble” and look  at Seattle overall.

    Magnolia real estate stats

    The crystal ball… In order to look at the future of the Seattle real estate market, you must look at the past couple of years.

    Seattle has seen a huge appreciation rate for the last few years – in the double digits.  Can it continue?  What do you project for next year’s appreciation?   These are the questions we are getting from buyers and sellers in Seattle. According to the latest stats form the NWMLS, King County rang in at a 13.2% increase for prices from the same time last year.  Single family homes alone jumped 14.4% from last year in price. Condo median prices in King County jumped up 19.7% from last year.  My prediction based on the factors below is a 6% to 8% increase in prices for Seattle proper overall.  I feel like this is a conservative assumption. Our outlook is good, but I don’t expect to see double digit increases again in the next year.  Obviously there are the traditional pockets of Seattle that will completely defy my predictions in both directions, but overall, based on what is happening out there, this is my opinion.

    What Is Driving These Double Digit Market Price Increases? 

    1. Inventory.  The story remains the same on this front.  Inventory is not keeping up with buyer demand. We will most likely see a slight slow down in the market only because of the season.  Typically homeowners don’t put their homes on the market in fall and winter as often as they do in spring and summer.
    2. Tech Segment Increasing.  People are moving here.  More than ever.
    3. Interest Rates.  Still Low.

    What Could slow down Seattle’s real estate market? 

    1. Election Year.  There is always uncertainty in election years no matter who you vote for.  A change is a change and change creates uncertainty.
    2. Interest Rates.  If they go up, our market will slow down as buying power decreases.  It won’t be catastrophic, but it will definitely cut the demand.
    3. The Appreciation Itself.  As homeowners find themselves not underwater from 2006/2007 pricing, they may be more open to moving.  This puts more inventory on the market to meet the demands of buyers and basic economics says this will soften the market.  If the market becomes inundated, then prices soft and growth slows down.

    The Current Magnolia Real Estate Market:

    Magnolia homes sold 09022015

    Magnolia real estate market 092015

    Comparing Magnolia Real Estate to Seattle Real Estate overall:

    FactsAndTrendsReport Magnolia trends

    FactsAndTrendsReportSeattle through July 2015

    Comparing All Price Points In Magnolia Homes For Sale (Residential Only) to the same time last year: 

    CMA_1_Line_Landscape_3651all price points magnolia 0101 2015 to 0831 2015

    CMA_1_Line_Landscape_4251all price points 012014 to 0831 2014

    Magnolia Homes SOLD In The Million Dollar Listing Price And Up (Year Over Year): 

    CMA_1_Line_Landscape_3819magnolia 012014 to 0831 2014

    sold one million and up 2015 to 0831

    Do you have some information to add to this? I will be updating this regularly form here on out with recent sales and market talk.  I am very interested in what you have to say.

    Courtney Cooper 206-850-8841  courtney@cooperjacobs.com

     

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